By JIM TROUP and SHARON MICHALSKY
JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.
His boss came just this close to physically throwing him out of the ofﬁce.
He was a young yet talented analyst, but he was always coming up with crazy ideas that his stressed-out superiors had no time for.
Business had been a lot easier a few years earlier when the market was booming.
Things were pretty good now, but more confusing. Old business models were being replaced, and new kinds of
jobs, products, and services were being created. Companies that had been stable and dependable sources of growth for decades were going bankrupt. This was being attributed variously to mismanagement and a slowing economy.
Those that were ﬁrmly rooted in the old investment culture believed, or at least fervently hoped, that the new sorts of
businesses that were popping up all over would only be more ﬂashes in the pan.
Didn’t the market disasters of ’01 and ’02 prove this? Only fools or speculators would invest in these new corporations. The year before was bad enough, but ’01 and ’02 proved that (1) things were not “different” this time, (2) fundamental principles did not change, and (3) it is best to stick to the basics.
PART ONE: HOW THE TIMES THAT WERE A-CHANGIN’ . . .
FINALLY CHANGED 1
CHAPTER 1 Breaking Up Is Hard to Do 3
CHAPTER 2 The Financial Frontier 27
CHAPTER 3 911 55
PART TWO: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 77
CHAPTER 4 The Necessary Revolution 79
CHAPTER 5 A Parallel Universe 105
PART THREE: RECONSTRUCTION 129
CHAPTER 6 Artiﬁcial Intelligence 131
CHAPTER 7 New Logic 155
CHAPTER 8 We Will Be Able to Say,
“We Were There at the Beginning” 199
APPENDIX A Bonds 225
APPENDIX B Appreciating the Potential of the Emerging Markets 229
APPENDIX C An Alternative to Index Funds 233
APPENDIX D Professionally Managed Portfolios 235
APPENDIX E The Impending Pension Plan Crises 238
APPENDIX F Estimating the Length of the Twenty-First Century Formulation and Acceleration Phases 251
APPENDIX G Reading List 253