David Dreman – Contrarian Investment Strategies – Beat the Market by Going Against the Crowd

The New Contrarian Investment Strategy Contrarian Investment Strategy Psychology and the Stock Market.  The Next Generation
Beat the Market by Going Against the Crowd.
By David Dreman

Content :

Part I Why Current Methods Don’t Work

1. The Sure Thing Almost Nobody Plays
On Markets and Odds
Great Expectations
The New Conquistadors
A Titanic Clash
The journey Ahead

2. From Technical Analysis to Astrology
The Walls Come Ambling Down
The rust Victory
Hail the All-Powerful Chart
The Star Wars Technicians
And There’s the Fringe
The Technician’s Moment of Truth
Destroying the Faith

3. Bigger Game Ahead
Value Investing 49 Assessing Earning Power
Cash Flow Analysis
Price to-Book Value
Contemporary Value Techniques
Visions of Sugar Plums
Why Don’t They Work?
Market Timing and Tactical Asset Allocation
A Purposeful Random Walk
The Three Faces of EMH
The Power of an Idea

Part II The Expert Way To LoseYour Savings

4. Dangerous Forecasts
A Portrait of Dorian Gum
The Difficulties of Forecasting
Predictable Expert Errors
The Floor Becomes the Ceiling
A Multibillion•Dollar Slip in Insestment Theory
Security Analysis—A Mission Impossible?
How Much Is Too Much?
A Surefire Way to Lose Money

5. Would You Play a I in 50 Billion Shot?
The Forecasting Follies
Missing the Barn Door
Analyst Forecasts in Booms and Busts
Was Forecasting in the Past Any Bata?
What Does It All Mean?
Hey. I’m Special
Some Causes of Forecasting Ems
Career Pressures and Forecasts
Psychological Influences on Analysts’ Decisions
Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside
The Forecasters’ Plague Analyst Overconfidence

6. Nasty Surprises Paying Through the Nose for Growth
The Many Faces of Surprise
What the Record Shows
Toute Ia Diffifence
The Effect of Positive Surprises
Calling In the Chips
Pulling the Trigger
Reinforcing Events
The Effects of Surprise Over Time
A Surprising Opportunity

PART III The World Of Contrarian Investing

7. Contrarian Investment Strategies
The World Turned Upside Down
In Visibility We Trust
In the Beginning …
Mom Nasty. Ugly Little Facts
Whatever Took So Long?
The Great Discovery
The Last Nail Summing it Up

8. Boosting Portfolio Profits
Strategy #1: Low P/E
Strategies #2 and #3: Price-to-Cash Flow and Price-to-Book Value
Strategy #4: Price-to-Dividend
Contrarian Stock Selection: A-B-C Rules
Should We Abandon Security Analysis Entirely?
An Eclectic Approach
To the Trenches
Using the Low WE Strategy
The World of GARP
Using Low Price.to-Cash Flow
Time for a Miss
Price-to-Book Value Strategies
A Beneficial Side Effect
An Overview of the Eclectic Approach
Owning the Casino
Walking Away from the Chips

9. A New. Powerful Contrarian Approach
Contrarian Strategies Within Industries
Why Buy the Cheapest Stocks in an Industry”
The Defensive Team: Part II
Buy-and-Weed Strategies
When Do I Get My Statistic’s?
What Contrarian Strategies Won’t Do for You
Alternatives to Contrarian Strategics
Mutual Funds
Closed-End Investment Companies
Foreign Country Funds: Myth and Reality
When to Sell?

10. Knowing Your Market Odds Improving Your Market Odds
In Simplification We Believe
It Ain’t Necessarily So
The Law of Small Numbers
A Variation of the Previous Problem
Regression to the Mean
If It Looks Good. It Must Taste Good
On Shark Attacks and Falling Airplane Parts
Anchoring and Hindsight Biases
Decisional Biases and Market Fashions
Shortcuts to Disaster

11. Profiting from Investor Overreaction The Pervasiveness of Investor Overreaction
Junk Bonds: A Money-Making Overreaction
Earnings Surprise: Another Profitable Overreaction
The Investor Overreaction Hypothesis
Is It a Horse?
The Dark Side of the Moon
Other Voices
Regression to the Mean Revisited

PART IV Investing In The 21m Century
12. Crisis Investing First Know Your Enemy
Symptoms of a Crisis
Essentials for Crisis Investing
Hedging Your Bets
Value Lifelines in a Crisis
What Are the Risks of Crisis Investing?
The Psychology of Risk

13. An Investment for All Seasons
Stock Returns Over Time
The Investment Revolution
Fighting the Last War
Enter the Second Horseman
A New Investment Era
Investing in Doomsday
To Sum Up

14. What Is Risk?
It Seemed So Simple
Other Risk Measurements
The Riskiness Investments
Toward a Realistic Definition of Risk
Are Stocks More Risky?
Is There Something Wrong with This Picture?
A Better Way of Measuring Risk

15. Small Stocks, Nasdaq, and Other Market Pitfalls
The Small Company Blues
An Attack on Contrarian Strategies
We Have a Tie-In to Mecca
Should You Give Up on Small Stocks?
Beware of Nasdaq and Small Stock Trading Costs
The Index Trap
Tailor-Made Performance Records

PART V Psychology And Markets
16. The Zany World of Rationality The Former Comrades Meet the Market
You Can Never Go Wrong in Real Estate
The Madness of Crowds
Some Common Features of Manias
The Characteristics of a Crowd
The World of Social Reality
The Reinforcement of Group Opinion
How Not to Get Rich
Here We Go Again
Devastating Changes in Perception
Not Very Different

17. Beyond Efficient Markets
MPT Assumptions Revisited
Problems, So Many Problems
The Crisis of Modem Economics
Correlations Unlimited
The Vanishing Support for EMH
Those Dreadful Anomalies
The Jury Is Out Again
More of the Same
Other Evidence Against Efficiency
A Leap of Faith The Problem of Interpreting Information
Summing It All Up
Towers Built in Sand
The New Paradigm


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